Half right, half overstated. Thin LLM wrappers get eaten — products whose value-add is "we hand-tuned this prompt for X." Products that change workflow primitives (state, persistence across sessions, multi-step orchestration) are a different animal.

Karpathy pausing Eureka reads more like "I miss being at the frontier and can't replicate that as a solo founder" than "my moat got eaten." Different decision.