You're making a big mistake by completely failing to account for the inherent (not to mention quite large) uncertainties in this kind of situation.
A priori, it's not "40 days in jail == $800k payday", it's "some unknown number of days in jail and risk of a conviction in exchange for a chance at a payday of unknown value".
Not to mention, the side effects extend beyond jail time. For example, your name gets plastered everywhere too.