alt Hacker NewsWe haven't seen a significant increase in the quality of LMM output since 2023 that hasn't been the result of throwing even more energy and compute at it. AI "reasoning" is just recursive iteration on their output, with diminishing improvement on each pass. It seems to be the reason why Mythos is not generally available, maybe a canary of sorts.
If LLMs were improving significantly independent of scaling up compute resources, I would be a lot more worried. The economic instability (on several levels) of the current trajectory cannot last. Countries and companies that don't take a more sustainable approach will eventually find themselves outclassed by those that do. Unfortunately that is not a guarantee against some sort of dark age in the short term.
> We haven't seen a significant increase in the quality of LMM output since 2023 that hasn't been the result of throwing even more energy and compute at it.
This is completely false. Most of the dramatic improvements in LLM quality in the last two years were due to the application of new post-training methods, especially RLVR. It’s really interesting to read about (you should!) and it is the whole secret to why LLMs did not plateau in 2024 or 2025 like many people confidently predicted. Sure, RLVR requires compute to do, but this is not just throwing more compute at 2023 LLMs.