> and that is a question of when, not if

Well yes. People have said this since at least 2012, and we're still waiting for a CUDA-killer in 2026.

Chinese fabs can't import cutting-edge silicon, and they can't manufacture EUVL at scale either. I have no reservations concerning China's ability to innovate, but the blockers are enormous and have succeeded in preventing China from accessing the true HPC market for over a decade now.