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MagicMoonlighttoday at 6:39 AM6 repliesview on HN

The point to short will be when the Chinese army forms up.

With Ukraine we saw it. It was incredibly obvious. Hilariously the Ukrainians themselves saw the huge army on their border and told everyone it wasn’t going to happen and refused to build any defences. Taiwan will be the same. But the satellites will give everyone enough warning.


Replies

_heimdalltoday at 11:16 AM

To be fair my understanding at the time was that Ukraine was well aware the invasion was coming and the government was publicly making claims that helped avoid panic and allowed them to move military assets around more easily.

pjc50today at 8:37 AM

> the Ukrainians themselves saw the huge army on their border and told everyone it wasn’t going to happen and refused to build any defences

You're going to have to cite that, because Ukraine was already in the low-intensity Donbass conflict when the most recent invasion happened.

But yes, you can't hide an invasion fleet. The Chinese navy only has three aircraft carriers. They've recently had high level purges in the PLA. Invading now would be a disaster for them. But you never know when a disaster is going to get ordered for political reasons.

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Ray20today at 7:46 AM

> Hilariously the Ukrainians themselves saw the huge army on their border and told everyone it wasn’t going to happen and refused to build any defences.

In terms of gaining political support, being a victim in the modern world is very advantageous. The more of your civilians die unjustly, the more the media will portray you as a great and brave leader. There is nothing hilarious about this, only cynicism of the leaders of the country.

account42today at 9:26 AM

Ukraine expected treaties to mean something. The world now knows better.

tokaitoday at 12:46 PM

>Hilariously the Ukrainians themselves saw the huge army on their border and told everyone it wasn’t going to happen and refused to build any defences.

Not the full truth. Leadership said publicly that there was nothing to worry about, but the AFU dispersed assets, distributed suppiles and ammunition, and took a defensive stance before the invasion happened.

theshacklefordtoday at 7:20 AM

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