Imagine you have a slot machine that consistently gives you 1-5 dollars for every dollar you put in.

You like it.

It feels good, and although you don't win a lot, you consistently win.

…buuut, its a trap.

As you put more money in, the win rate goes down.

You still mostly win when you put 50s in, but it hurts more when you lose, but its still a net gain…

So you start on bigger projects, unsupervised agents, multi agent workflows. You’re dropping 1000s in each time, and…

…and now, you start find yourself shouting at the slot machine.

Its great when it works, but interactions are stressful, because the stakes are higher and fails hurt more.

Screw this, you go back to smaller stakes. Its great.

…but now you're slower, you miss the big wins from big stakes.

So you go back.

…and you get angry. Again. And again. And again… and you’re still kind of winning, and the wins are great but the fails are Super Annoying, because they waste your time, your money, your attention.

It should Just Work but instead why the fuck did you rm -rf my project folder claude?

I think people arent stupid, but we are suckers, and we will dynamically balance the way we use a slot machine tool like this to the very edge of our tolerance for risk and failure.

…and that varies from person to person; but it makes everyone angry when they tip too far and fall into the “repeatedly pull slot machine arm angrily” trap.

Non deterministic tools will always be like this.

It’s like doom scrolling. We’re wired for it. Or at least I am.