alt Hacker NewsIt's fair to say sanctions don't always work but otherwise this is wrong on every account.
- The Soviet Union fell apart for economic reasons, not due to ideology or anything else.
- Sanctions 100% work. North Korea is a powerless useless state due to sanctions. They have not collapsed, but they can't do anything otherwise.
- Sanctions on Russia are absolutely effective - we can see how the state budget gets drained and how it affects their ability to fight.
Russia is finally at the 'end of it's rope' ad Putin is talking about 'the war coming to an end' - why? Because the economic engine is failing, and people are starting to turn against him.
The 'hardship at home' is finally starting to take root, and it's putting a lot of pressure on Putin.
It doesn't mean the economy or regime collapses, but it puts Putin in a corner, in a weakened position.
- Iran is not North Korea - the leadership is not popular and the people are not 'brainwashed' like in NK, and economic sanctions will hit very hard.
The JCPOA put in place by Obama was by far the best deal, but failing that, the 'oil blockade' is by far the best option for getting Iran to the table, probably more effective than any of the kinetic actions. Iran has bout 3 months until the pain starts to hit.
The pain will hit 'the world' hard, but the US will only face mild inflation.
Paradoxically - that mild inflation will infuriate voters and cause 'regime change' in the US at midterms. So - you can see 'sanctions' are working for Iran as well.
- " Trump would rather let the world burn than restrain Israel in the slightest." this is false, and a total misunderstanding about Trump's position on Israel.
Trump has restrained Israel on many occasions. He went after Iran for his own benefit not for anyone else. It worked last year to bolster his image, then after 'Venezuela' Trump saw the obvious path to popularity. Netenyahu told him 'it would be easy' to win - and even do 'regime change' aka appealed to Trump's ego, not to the plight of Israel. Even on the domestic issues, DJT is mostly after AIPAC money and votes. He's not strongly ideologically aligned, and he's happy to do deals with Qatar, UAE, Saudi that throws Israel's security interest to the window.
Literally yesterday - Trump was plausibly going to offer 'a deal' that would have given Iran quite a lot, but it was his own pro-Israel senior political that forced him to backpedal. Senior GOP people came out and warned him off.
DJT wants out of this situation and would throw all of us - including Israel to the wind.
Note that Iran can re-organize their budget, change spending, get some Oil out otherwise, and 'prolong their burn' which then gives impetus for Trump to strike a deal.
But time is not really on Iran's side - they think they have a bit of an edge, but it's definitely a game of chicken.
Name one time sanctions have worked. And relaly by worked I mean caused a regime to collapse or otherwise change. I can think of one: South Africa. And they were an ally not an enemy so they don't count. Sanctions against allies work great. Israel would collapse in a day if the US seriously floated sanctions.
USSR? Sanctions werne't the primary cause.
North Korea? The Kims have ruled for 60 years with no end in sight. So really we're just starving North Koreans for literally no reason. How has that "worked"?
Russia? That's funny. Russia has been weeks away from collapse for 3+ years now. It's not happening. Russia is going to sit on the Ukrainian territory they have until the West gets bored and the West will get bored. It's a war of attrition and Ukraine will run out of fighting men first. This was my prediction in 2023 after the last serious Ukrainina counteroffensive failed. The Iran situation makes this even more likely because Europe will need Russia's energy exports and that situation is only getting worse.
Iran's leadership? Whatever Iranians think of their leadership, they despise the US and Israel more. As always happens, factions unite against foreign invaders, particularly colonizers. Iranians remember well what the US has done to them.
There are actually two schools of thought on Iran:
1. they should've developed a nuke so they'd be left alone like North Korea. The Ayatollah who got assassinated actually had a fatwa against doing it. Many view this as a strategic error. Many think the region would actually be much more stable if Iran had a nuke because it would restrain Israel's child murder regime [1]; or
2. Closing the Strait is like a nuke but it's a nuke they can use. As such they don't need a nuke.
As for the pain, the US is torching the international order they've spent 70 years building at a rapid pace. NATO, the Island Chain Strategy for China, Taiwan, even the status of the US dollar as a reserve currency are all unravelling. The big winner here is China who simply has to... do nothing.
As for Trump, Israel and Iran, you kind of contradict yourself here. You say Bibi whispered in his ear. This is true and has been true for every president since at least Reagan. Only Trump was dumb enough to take the bait. I'd also love to know when you think Trump has ever restrained Israel. You might be tempted to argue the Gaza "ceasefire" but it wasn't really. The Gazans are still being bombed and starved, just not quite so much. Is that restraint? Not really. They've just moved their bloodlust to Lebanon with zero consequences.
As for the rumors about what Trump was about to do, yeah that's all bullshit. It's just market manipulation for personal profit and to desperately try to keep oil below $100/barrel.
I will agree DJT wants out of this situation. And he also thought he could do a decapitation strike like in Venezuela. And he could end it today but doing so requires breaking with Israel and he just won't do it. Not yet at least.
And yes, time is on Iran's side. I imagine much like North Korea, if this went on for 60 years there'd still be people insisting that Iran was weeks away from collapsing.
[1]: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/nuclear-armed-iran-would-b...