> Corporate leaders are starting to question whether soaring AI spending is delivering meaningful returns.

This is act one the AI bear market. Yes I know everyone screams “bubble”. Let me explain the scenario I have in mind.

1. AI booms because the technology seems to actually have promise of revolutionizing how work gets done. It can do your taxes! It can drive Excel! It can act as a CEO! It can code up full apps and SaaS products! It can replace this vendor or that! You know the drill.

2. Every company must in corporate AI or be seen as obsolete. Having a bad quarter? Announce that you are “seeking to explore opportunities to develop an AI integration plan framework” for your plumbing business. Massive AI compute buying happens. While two of the three major AI houses are not publicly traded proxies like Nvidia and RAM manufacturers are so the market rips higher and higher. Nvidia trades as if it is already 10+ years from now, every company out there has adopted AI perfectly, and it is delivering huge profits to them.

3. Reality checks start pouring in. Turns out that not only is AI expensive (a problem that presumably will be taken care of with time and development), but that the technology itself just isn’t suitable for everything. (IMHO it’s great at augmenting a power user but it is terrible at interacting directly with customers). We start seeing individual companies change tone on investment. They can’t stop it due to momentum but they are starting to shift the narrative to warn of what comes next. This is where we are.

4. Numbers come in. Earnings show what the actual ROI is. Some companies do benefit, but crucially we see examples of where investing in AI destroys value. I think this happens when replace crucial parts of their workforce with agents and find that they lost in-house expertise, when customers left due to worse products, or simply when AI was roughly as expensive as human labor without being significantly more productive.

5. The market stumbles. What do you mean AI won’t take over every corporate America?! Surely that can’t be right! Nvidia and other proxies flag.

6. In a late to the game rush Anthropic and OpenAI IPO fearing that the market has noticed that the emperor has no clothes. Their internal numbers turn out to be scary: very high revenue but no path to insane profitability. They quickly get included in QQQ and maybe even S&P500 but as their IPO price is the highest they trade they drag the broad market indexes down. This is leveraged by the Nvidia proxy status.

7. Infrastructure course correction. Hyperscalers who started huge datacenter buildouts cannot justify it. They pay contract penalties and get out of some of the projects, writing down losses. The market fully melts.

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I think there is a competing market downturn fueled by the affordability squeeze. Basically while AI spend is corporate driven, the biggest investors are consumer companies. Of the hyperscalers you can maybe argue that Microsoft is not a B2C fully but it is close. If consumers don’t have money to spend, hyperscalers take a hit, investment slows from there, and AI is hit directly by it.

I think either scenario is likely, it’s just which happens first. But right now the market is sprinting down a tight rope and trading like that tight rope has no end and that the sprinter never makes a mistake regardless of wind changes. Everything has to go right for a very long time to justify valuations. One stumble can stop it all.