Complex systems are dominated by feedback curves, but people insist on analyzing them by the forward transmission curves.

The separation between the cause and the effects are way less important than their polarity. High-order effects tend to be smaller, but they are also way more numerous, so things can cancel out or end-up resolved on either way.

Externalities always felt glossed over in economics. So yes this business will ruin the river for everyone but please direct your attention to this chart and look at all that producer surplus!

I think you're over analyzing to some degree. The distribution and median outcome (1st through N order) was always negative for the course of action this administration has taken. The proponents try to sell people on the notion that this could all turn out great, which is way out on one end of the tail (e.g let's say 1% chance for sake of argument) for this action, and here we sit right around a median realized outcome for this kind of an intervention. I'd bundle all the N order effects up, then look how an aerial bombardment operation affects the liklihood of outcomes like the straight of hormuz being closed and/or controlled by iran, or iran surrendering the nuclear material and raising the white flag, etc...

You could probably do some simulations to see this was almost always going to be a losing strategy. Detailing the N order effects is good accounting, but the picture likely gets murkier the more you try to extrapolate N+1.

same here. gas is $6 in seattle; every business uses gas, explains the extreme cost of living. i'm going broke working for AWS.

I was going to reply to this post with "surely shipping prices going up is a first order effect", but it's wrong. The real first order effect is the thousands of Iranian civilians (and fine, the hundreds of Iranian servicemen and the tens of American killers and their allies) whose families won't see them again.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullwhip_effect

They absolutely are

Since the U.S. knew that Iran was 100% going to close Hormuz since Jimmy Carter, who also refrained from taking Kharg island precisely for that reason, the second order effects appear to be desired.

Otherwise they'd impeach Trump by now. Even if they make a 2 month ceasefire deal now, it will start again after that.

and therefor you will not be surprised to find out that there has been a very recent dramatic decline in the asking price for empty containers in areas that are primarily devoted to imports, as the empty can is not worth the cost to ship it back.

I mean a move that will get you checkmated in one is bad, but there are a lot less of those than there are moves that will get you checkmated in 4 that are just as bad of an outcome for you.

[flagged]

[flagged]

The rest of the world suffering the stupidity of average the American voter.