An inference only platform selling good open weight model inference without the research overhead could capture a-lot of market for lower size model uses (haiky, gemeni flash). Diffusion-transformers and clever cashing can drop inference even lower, which is improving at a high rate.

The biggest reason large models are un-attainable for local applications is the lack hardware with large amount of unified/graphics memory (and the cost of the platforms that do). Once the memory slog goes back to normal and hardware manufacturers adapt to demand, we may see consumer hardware with large memory capacity effectively opening the door for slow but usable frontier model inference (assuming improvements in model efficiency and compute capacity)

At that point, inference becomes a race to the bottom. The large labs hope they can attain a leap in capability (which is increasingly looking bleak, with a average catch-up of just a few months) or market dominance through integration (integration in platforms and OS, exclusive deals with companies or governments).

For coding agents, i suspect no player will manage lock in enough market to enforce pricing much higher than the true inference cost, and catering to programmers becomes an unsustainable proposition. We will instead be further hit with a lot of AI integrated into our other tooling costs, such as GitHub, Microsoft suite, G-suite, forcing in AI functions as a value-ad into the total cost without giving the option to exclude them. (using their market position)