If you had a business task to complete that was only possible with ai and it cost you >$1500/month of work, how long would you have to delay the task so that it's cheaper long run to buy hardware and do local models?

$1,500/mo * 14 months = $21,000.

If local models are 14mo behind as many in HN say it may be profitable to just wait. Maybe just spend a few hundred dollars of your tokens and buy hardware piece by piece.