alt Hacker News>The widespread mistake people keep making is assuming the development of intelligence in LLMs should follow the same trajectory that human intelligence takes as it develops into adult levels of intelligence.
To be fair, almost everyone who claims LLMs are conscious tends to claim that they are conscious in exactly the way that humans are, to the point of stating that human brains are also just complex next-token prediction machines with a random seed. It's basically religious arguments on both sides.
Really? That has not been my experience.
I have seen people say "you're a next token prediction machine" but only in a similar way one might say "you're a cup of old lard". Not actually meaning it literally.
I have seen people interpret the request to show that they are not next token prediction machines to be a claim that they are, but this is almost always an argument to show certainty is difficult in this area.
People like Hinton have declared that they believe them to be conscious, but clealy indicate that they do not mean just like us.