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dotancohentoday at 3:17 PM2 repliesview on HN

The JCPOA agreements were set to expire in January 2026 - and then Iran could continue their nuclear ambitions. The only people who could support those agreements either:

1. Didn't read them and know that they expire in 10 years.

2. Think that 10 years is a long enough time in the future where whatever happens then doesn't matter to their current goals.

3. Would like to see a nuclear-capable Iran.

For what it's worth, January 2026 already passed 5 months ago.


Replies

amalcontoday at 4:57 PM

So, there would now need to be new negotiations as to the future of the Iranian nuclear program? Except with Iran in a weaker position than they actually are today, due to a decade of no progress on enrichment.

How is that worse than the current situation? Iran is closer to nuclear capability now than in your counterfactual, yet those who disagree with you are the ones who want a nuclear-capable Iran?

sofixatoday at 3:25 PM

Or alternatively, in 2026 Iran would have been hooked on closer economic cooperation and trade, (relative) reformers would be in power, and the deal would have been renewed. Yanking the deal all but guaranteed that the hardliners would go back in charge, because they were proven right - the US could not be trusted to keep its word, so negotiations don't matter, the only thing that would actually protect them is nuclear weapons.

> Would like to see a nuclear-capable Iran.

Postponing their nuclear programme with at least 10 years is absolutely worth doing. Because realistically you cannot, I repeat, cannot force them to stop it. If the regime wants to continue, it will and their facilities deep under the mountains are impenetrable.

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