alt Hacker NewsThe 409a has a lot of words and numbers to justify a particular valuation. It's not made up from the ether based on nothing. You can disagree with their reasoning and come to a different number, but you need to show your work if you want anyone to give a shit about your made up number. How many satellites have you launched this year? What's the going rate for a kilogram to LEO? Who are the competitors and what do they charge? Things like that which aren't magic made up numbers.
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409As are absolutely made-up numbers. Management writes a number on a sheet and a 409A consultant signs it.
You do realize SpaceX valuation is completely detached from the space business at this point?
Their S1 cites (by memory) a 370B addressable market for space stuff and a 27 trillion for AI.
And for AI they counted all Twitter accounts as grok users.
The Spaces eXploration company was a cool company, but it's not what's being sold to the market now.
Oh come on. They absolutely have to target a valuation that's profitable for previous rounds, any reasoning is subservient to that imperative.
The valuation is actually mostly about AI. Satellites, like electric cars, don’t have quite the growth story (and I do mean “story”).
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