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lbritotoday at 8:33 PM1 replyview on HN

Wait, how is any of this relevant if there were only 2 Claude commits? My statistics courses are far behind me, but don't you need at least 30 data points to conclude anything?


Replies

logicprogtoday at 8:35 PM

Depends on the methods you use. If you're trying to fit curves and so on, yes. The methods I use were designed for very low amounts of data, and are generally okay for that, specifically and especially when you're just trying to show a lack of evidence for some non-null hypothesis.

And again, that's kind of the point. There's exactly zero actual evidence, however you slice it, that "Claude broke rsync" except cherry-picked anecdata, and the whole point of my analysis is to demonstrate the total lack of any such trend/evidence at all, and just how in-distribution/normal these releases are, to show that if people hadn't known Claude was involved in them, they wouldn't have remarked on them.