alt Hacker NewsI get that results in your mind is a vibecoded full feature photoshop as the goal post, which is fair enough. That's no less arbitrary than say me defining the goal post as can it make me a useful script & thus has already delivered results with receipts.
That's why I'm saying this whole look at one point in time logic isn't useful here. Depending on where you set the cutoff you get diametrically opposed answers.
>Ponzi scheme
The IPO & bubble financial shenanigans are only loosely linked to the technological advancement. Tech genie is out of the bottle, people are intrigued and people with ability to tinker on this are spread globally. Even if the entirety of western tech & financial sphere disappeared tomorrow tech progress here would wobble and slow not stop.
Even the one global nexus where progress could have been killed globally - Taiwan - is looking like it'll de-risk shortly between CXMT and SMIC's rapid progress.
In my mind the base case assumption here has to be that the trend (that has been remarkably consistent) continues until proven otherwise. Stack enough improvements on top of each other and instead of a useful script you shall have your photoshop. Maybe...
> I get that results in your mind is a vibecoded full feature photoshop as the goal post, which is fair enough. That's no less arbitrary than say me defining the goal post as can it make me a useful script & thus has already delivered results with receipts.
I think vibe coded photoshop is what’s being talked about from Anthropic, OpenAI as the end goal - Dario is on record saying that AI will replace engineers and Sam Altman has said “ we will never ever write code by hand again. It doesn't make any sense to do so”. The cursor founder has said that he ships 10x what his other engineers ship. I want to know where people _genuinely_ think the cutoff is, because there’s a lot of talk about where it’s not, and that’s gmoving the goalposts.
> The IPO & bubble financial shenanigans are only loosely linked to the technological advancement.
Except they’re not. Someone is paying for this compute power, and energy.
> In my mind the base case assumption here has to be that the trend (that has been remarkably consistent)
Making wild promises, and insane promises about capability and then doing the same thing 3 months later when a new model releases? Isn’t it convenient that both OpenAI and Anthropic have models that are “too powerful” to release. How responsible of them.
At the same time; Anthropic, OpenAI and Copilot have all changed to usage based to billing recently for enterprises as they’ve been been undercharging by 10/100/1000x in many cases. Enterprises are limiting costs (uber limiting spend to $1500/mo this week).
If these tools were really game changing and integer productivity multipliers why aren’t major engineering organisations spending all their hiring grown on these tools and getting ahead of their competitors? Because they’re “not quite ready” just like they weren’t 6 months ago, and they still won’t be in 6 months.