alt Hacker NewsHe’s been continuously predicting that the collapse was just around the corner, that progress was slowing, and that there was no market for inference, since 2024.
The fact he’s never reflected on the glaring failures in his analysis tells what we need to know about his intellectual integrity. There’s truth in some of his words about financial risk, but if you can’t acknowledge that there’s upside too, you can’t evaluate risk properly either.
I find it difficult to take him seriously.
Replies
> progress was slowing
Do you think it's not slowing? Do I miss anything really important?
My understanding is that we have now is incremental improvement on thinking models which appeared more than a year ago. Of course, a breakthrough might happen, but I don't see one yet.
> He’s been continuously predicting that the collapse was just around the corner, that progress was slowing, and that there was no market for inference, since 2024.
Old WSB saying: The market can remain irrational for (far) longer than one can remain solvent.
And unfortunately, a lot of the market on the "buyer" side has been acting irrationally. When you see CEOs telling their employees that they don't care about token cost, only about "how much AI do you use" because that is what the stock market wants to hear - that's when you know we're all getting cooked, the question is how long it takes until the bubble bursts.
anyone that takes him seriously at this point... I don't want to say very bad words here...
Progress is slowing, in an important way.
Have a muck about with what Qwen 3.6 or Gemma 4 can do and you'll see. I mean this as an illustration but Qwen just isn't as far behind as I expected, and compared to the data centre hardware it will run on a potato.
The frontier models are losing their undeniable edge over that which is unmetered.
And even putting aside my optimism for the smaller open weights models, there's a huge amount of scope for the larger, hosted open weights models that are only just behind the cutting edge and which cost, what, 1/25th of the price on opencode go, openrouter etc.
Commodification is coming, and with it slimmer profit margins; it's hard to see them making anywhere near the kind of money they need to in a commodified market.