There is an observational study that was published in March 2026 that followed 4000 teams over 2 years. It shows, in my view, exactly that the productivity gains don't translate into economic value.
Here is the report:
https://www.faros.ai/blog/ai-acceleration-whiplash-takeaways
And my commentary:
If it was published in March 2026, even if the data was collected up to the day the study was published, 7/8ths of it would fail my “within the last six months” test. But I am looking forward to the results of future studies on this topic!