alt Hacker NewsOne of the "smells" that gives away a quacky ranter is they speak in impassioned, "Why doesn't everyone understand this?" tones, but in fact their argument just doesn't flow. If Zitron's argument were as solid as he keeps saying it is, you would read it and understand it and see that it is solid. He would begin somewhere–statistics on AI demand, say–and then walk the calculations carefully over to the next step–maybe revenue needed for profitability by AI companies–and you could follow the argument. But no. He jumps. He leaps. He circles back. If the situation were really "Gosh why can't you see it?!"-clear, his explanation of the situation would be clear. It isn't, because it isn't.
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I don't read Ed Zitron, aside from when he appears here on Hacker News, and I also find his tone to be over-the-top. I think we might agree on that much.
These articles are lengthy but, to my understanding, Ed's idea is...
* AI companies have committed to purchasing X amount of compute
* Data centers are being constructed to meet this demand, they'll need to charge amount Y
* AI companies do not have sufficient revenue to pay amount Y
IMHO this isn't surprising, personally the only real use-case for AI that I've seen is code generation or automated sales or scam calls. This doesn't seem like a big enough market for the huge dollar amounts I'm seeing thrown around.
I'm curious why you think Ed is so far off the mark on this. To me, it seems like we are headed for a big correction on the whole AI thing.
> He would begin somewhere–statistics on AI demand, say–and then walk the calculations carefully over to the next step–maybe revenue needed for profitability by AI companies–and you could follow the argument.
Which of the hyperlinks provided at the beginning sounded like what you wanted, and after you clicked it* how did it disappoint you?
The information you are describing is stuff I would not expect anybody to repeatedly duplicate across periodic blog-posts.
* (Yes, I'm being sardonic, but if you did bother to click them, then I'm legitimately interested in your answer.)
I like Ed's sense of humor, I also like that he can distill down a lot of messy details into something more cogent, especially with the money side.
But, I also think he has missed the mark on a fair few things in terms of out comes. He may be proven right yet in terms of the general shape of things for some parts of the industry but also will have some big misses.
My general take away usually comes down to, places like OpenAI, Anthropic and Oracle have gone in a little to hard to fast and it may hurt them long term as they struggle to make it work in terms of economics. not that they can't just it will be difficult. But places like Microsoft, Google, Meta, Apple, Amazon; they have a very long runway to endure the growing pains and make it through to a long term business that no longer burns cash.
Agreed. Phrases like "journalists are currently gooning over OpenAI and Anthropic" really put me off. It's a poor attempt at modern muckraking; cheeky yet offering little substance.
Oddly suspicious how this comment which was not one of the first comments which does not address the content at all but the tone skyrocketed to the top.
I particularly enjoy reading big banners asking me to pay for a newsletter subscription if I "liked" the content. Not if I found it interesting. Not if it actually provided any value whatsoever to me. No, you just have to "like" it. In other words, it is meant to be written in an engaging way and perhaps reinforce your believes like an echo chamber or even stir up certain strong emotions. Not to convey information. So, thanks, but no. I'm sure this opinion blog is very well written, but I don't think it is more well founded than anything else in this sea of opinions that sports a bigger garbage patch than the Pacific Ocean.
He does this on his podcast on a regular basis.
It's not entirely clear to me that the opposing argument is well-formed either. You constantly see numbers and statistics being wildly mis-used or overextrapolated.
Arguments have smells but rigour demands you investigate further. Zitron's smelly prose is, ironically, just the kind of stylistic distraction that AI can help condition; the further irony is that he will one day seem to have been right, for a year or two.
The money is indeed losing its mind over AI, and Zitron is a stopped clock. A correction is coming but the tool isn't going anywhere.
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His arguments on the numbers of AI are actually pretty solid.
I am still to see a solid counter to what he brings up there.
> He would begin somewhere–statistics on AI demand, say–and then walk the calculations carefully over to the next step–maybe revenue needed for profitability by AI companies–and you could follow the argument.
That's exactly what the first (titled) section does?