> 2026 consumer revenue projections from OpenAI are pitched at $14-15 billion, apparently. If they get that, it's the only year they will get that

Would you care to wager on that?

Because I would gladly take the other side at even odds.

> consumer AI is worth, to Anthropic

Anthropic does not really care about consumer AI. I expect consumer is where their least profitably customers are.

My primary expectation is that Apple will mostly increase usage of AI by general consumers. To me, this reads like Instagram adding stories. Did it stop Snapchat's growth? Sure. But I would be cautious about claiming it will take too many users away from OpenAI. I think it will be a fairly different product offering.

If you're paying to use ChatGPT right now, you might be using it for hobby coding, projects, or image generation. If you're paying a lot for ChatGPT, you're almost certainly using it for personal programming projects.

The $100/month (and up) subscribers aren't going to churn because of this, and I would be extremely surprised if the $20/month users do in any meaningful way.