Memory is unlikely to drop in price before mid-2027 when new capacity starts to come online.

The GPU shortage looks to be even longer lived.

Everything is a temporary situation on long enough timeframes, especially if it’s exponentially growing. Moore’s law which dictates that compute depreciates quickly has been slowing down a lot in the last few years, coupled with the explosion in demand we’ve found ourselves in a prolonged shortage situation. The bubble will pop, but if you predict when correctly, you will be a rich man.

It's very unclear to me.

The key question is on direction of LLMs. Right now, LLMs are taking over human jobs. If the cost of silicon+power < cost of human being doing the same work, what rational reason is there to employ a human being?

If this applies to SWEs, lawyers, business analysts, many research scientists, .... this situation could persist for a long, long time. While capital costs less than the inputs of labor (nominal food, housing, etc.), there is no need for labor.

The key question is about continued progress in models, and of the tooling around them:

- Plateau: Old silicon obsoletes in due course

- Rise quickly: Old silicon maintains value for a long time

Are current datacenter deployments structured in such a way that the memory can later be moved to newer GPU dies? Or is it all packaged together as on consumer graphics cards?

I assumed the latter and therefore that the memory is depreciating along with the GPU cores it's soldered onto PCBs with.

... or is it a different argument being made, perhaps that depreciation for GPUs has slowed because rising demand will keep them in service longer?