Assuming 2-3 years from now when V5 is out China would have mostly caught up in compute, and honestly that's it China can scale up compute a lot faster than US maybe a few countries can match it, or help match it but won't happen while US Iran thing is going on.

Further the human costs in the loop for AI training are insanely low or atleast substantially lower outside of US, so sure without the Nvidia upcharge I think everyone else who can use Compute from China is at an advantage.

If the assumption is AI is scaling issue then China will win because they can do infrastructure. Maybe if US wasn't in a trade war with rest of the planet there was some hope but I don't think so.

Once Deepseek figures out the new compute and can get it on par with Nvidia's clusters even if by using 4x the energy(cause they can). I don't think OpenAI or Anthropic can maintain a lead, if they don't have a lead the pricing difference will kill the AI race.

The best case scenario is OpenAI and Anthropic are dead in 2-5 years once China is caught up.

The worst case scenario where AI is not a productive boost is that well the thing pops.

Either way I don't see how this works out. Sure US govt could bomb China that's always an option.