alt Hacker News> There seems to be a desire for a narrative that AI really just can't replace productive work, and that it's all a mirage.
Yes, and juniors aren't known for their productive work in the beginning. That's not their purpose. Their purpose is to do the mundane work, because it is important for them to become less junior and more senior.
That is robbed of them.
Which in 5-10 years means the need for senior developers is gonna shoot through the roof.
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The need for seniors isn’t going to “shoot through the roof” if they are using AI.
If senior engineers are even 2x more productive with AI, then it’s like there are 2x as many senior engineers.
Most likely, seniors will be 10x more productive in 5 years using AI. This outpaces the retirement rate.
All the software engineers we need for the next 20-30 years are already in the current workforce.
Only way juniors can rise to the level of seniors will be through independent projects, long unpaid internships/apprenticeships, etc.
The industry will now have heavy gatekeeping built in.
people keep saying that assuming that in 5-10 years AI won’t be as good as senior engineers
Exactly. Now most new hires are apprentices, before they might have been hired to do chores