"Performance guarantees are stochastic rather than deterministic. The worst case performance (for metrics such as number of hops and oversubscription) is known, but for RNG our models are stochastic (i.e., the worst case performance is known with high probability). This is a weaker limitation than it might appear. Fat-tree guarantees are also effectively stochastic once you account for real-world failures, which are frequent at scale. RNG simply makes the stochastic nature explicit and designs for it from the start."
Well I guess I'd like to see those guarantees, but more specifically, the variance of them.
I think Section 9, and Figures 13/14 in the Arxiv preprint sort of address this, but it doesn't mention anything about accounting for real-world failures in fat trees. I haven't had a chance to read it all, though...