What did your AI-assisted workflow look like 1 year ago? I can only speak for myself, but I would carefully specify a class or module in great detail and then hand it off to the model to implement, then carefully review the result.

How about 2 years ago? Back then, I wouldn't even trust it to write a 5-line function without making some sort of silly mistake.

Today, I can leave an agent running by itself for 20 or 30 minutes and most of the time, it comes back with a result that's either flawless or can be refined to be good with a few back and forth messages. Maybe I still have to make some high-level decisions ahead of time, but all of the details, including exploring the codebase and figuring out what to do based on that, can be left to the agent. The amount of improvement just in the last 2 years has been staggering.

Now extrapolate how things will look if the trend continues for another 2 or 3 years.

Is this guaranteed to happen? No. But people have been predicting that we're going to hit a wall for a long time now, and we haven't yet. Maybe there's a wall just ahead of us. But maybe there's not -- and the "not" case seems likely enough that we should at least be planning for it.

If we already were at the point that AI could self-direct effectively, then the world would already be very different (eg AI-driven technological progress and unemployment) in a way that we might have wished we prepared for more.

N+1. This is my experience and for the most part the people that I work with share the same feeling.

A highly enthusiastic concussion enthusiast with 10 hands is how one person put it.

These are people in different fields but highly accomplished so I’m feeling comfortable sharing their assessment.

It's nice that people are genuinely curious about this.

- All of your observations are absolutely dead on

- Yet, we have very very very robust scaling laws that as Dario points out we've had and validated for over a decade. This extends to downstream measures like METR time horizon and compsosite benchmarks like the epoch capability index.

- If you look at where you're at now, which is again dead on, you're looking at a point on a curve that is quite easy to extrapolate, but less easy to tell when exactly on the curve a certain capability or use case undergoes a step change from error rates dropping below a threshold that is hard to anticipate in advance.

So while Dario / other frontier CEOs are understandably unpalatable, they are absolutely spot on with a call out that all of this is bound to happen and happen quickly, and that's without solving several core problems that haven't been solved yet (e.g. continual learning). In 2023, coding agents were just laughable. Yet they followed the same predictable training curves. Anyone looking at the data can see the obvious, and anyone reading newspaper headlines or hacker news comments would get a very different impression.

I've experienced the same.

That said Claude Code has a million features like loops that I know exist but never use.

I imagine that spending a lot more time creating an initial spec goes a long way towards independence, I just don't usually do that.

> this exponential line of thinking

It's a clever argument because if you question it, you're reminded of the entire history of technological development which is, guess what, exponential.

You're sometimes also dismissed as not understanding the concept of exponentials. This again is clever, as it's baked into the definition that if you don't see it happening, or can't imagine it happening, well that's precisely a tell you're living through an exponential!

All the reasons you might give can be countered with, essentially, "that problem that seems clear today will go away sooner than you can imagine and when it does you'll be on the back foot, so you'd better just assume it will go away and project/plan accordingly".

The trick is entirely that one cannot possibly deny the general power of exponential progress across all of technology, it's almost a law, but it doesn't work in the other direction - no particular local technology is owed exponential growth because of this general pattern. Sometimes things just cap out at merely 'useful' and don't improve much further, no matter how much you want to believe they won't, no matter how steep the progress curve (or, indeed, line) has been up to that point.

To this point the narrative of what these tools can do over these last 3 or 4 years has always been way ahead of the reality. Everyone who works with the tools knows this.

Not everyone wants it to be true, so some will not acknowledge it and will just keep pushing this year-ahead projection as ground truth today. Many (not all) of those people aren't builders, so they don't have to deal with present reality jarring up against this projection of what ought to be possible, they're safe just talking about what should hypothetically be possible and making plans around that that won't be executed for months to years anyway. This keeps the flywheel going, and in fairness, some of the reality has actually caught up in certain ways, so some of those plans will have to some degree worked out which spins the flywheel faster still.

In the end though I just keep thinking: it's been 4 years (as referenced in the post). A lot has happened, the tools are very cool and very useful for certain things. But when I put my head up and look around in the world, even just the software world, nothing's really changed in terms of actual outcomes, in terms of new things appearing or being built that didn't exist 4 years ago. Certainly nothing feels instinctively like it's improved much, subjectively.

Maybe this is what it feels like to be in the knee of a curve of an exponential, but it seems equally reasonable this is just a breakthrough that's kind of improving at a clip you'd expect it to for all the investment put in, but fundamentally is just a new tool that needs to be slowly commercialised in an economically rational way, as we gear up for the next breakthrough which may or may not be related. Who says it must just keep improving forever? This argument never made much sense to me.

This is a very tech-focused message board, populated by mostly tech-insiders, so perhaps a little outside perspective will help people understand.

Tech people are following a religious belief system whose utopian promise is the all-powerful computer that will end all suffering. I once read an article in reason magazine from over 30 years ago about how an advanced computer in the future will bring everyone who has ever lived back from the deat and let them live in paradise. They were completely serious. Atheists reading this may object to my description of the tech belief system as religious, but I believe it is accuarte. The idea that tech is an imrpovement and will improve people's lives is believed as an act of faith. Tech has its own moral systems based on some form of libertarian progressivism. And in the future, through the inevitable scientific magic of exponential something, a computer will ascend to godhood and judge all mankind for their actions before allowing some into eternal paradise.

To what extent any of this is true is up for debate, but most west coast tech elite are actively working towards this future, and these are the ideas that drive them. It's hard to talk to them about it because this is their woldview, and they imagine everyone to believe what they do.