I'm curious if people have a good story for why WASI will succeed where Java failed
My main one is that WASI has benefitted from an additional 31 years of accumulated industry-wide experience compared to when Java was first released.
Programs written in Java require installation of a middleware called Java runtime. It adds extra friction for end-users. And even if one has Java runtime installed, a newer version may be necessary for a recently-published application.
With WASM it may be the same, unless al major OS vendors integrate a WASM runtime so that it doesn't need to be installed separately.
My main one is: distribution & access. If major browsers implement the WASI runtime then using and distributing a WASI app will be way simpler than the Java equivalent ever was.
Because Java was doing nothing similar, a better comparison would be .NET CLR that actually tried to be a decent compilation target.
Also security, Java has reflection so you cannot reliably sandbox java libraries