> What data does "they're lying" fit better than "they're earnest?"

Claim: GPT-4 is a PhD level expert.

Claim: LLMs "reason"

Claim: LLMs "understand"

Claim: AI will automate jobs away

None of these are "earnest" claims for a company to make (whatever that means). They're vacuous bullshit, and false. It's a bunch of wordsmithing papering over results that are either hidden from view or just unimpressive. Even if the person saying that shit believes it, that's not super relevant--if a company is advertising these capabilities then... just... doesn't do it, that's lying. Corporate statements aren't unilaterally determined by fallible individuals, they're reviewed, crafted products. They can be fairly critiqued as such.

> Brilliant framework: Anyone making claims about the future is not just speculating, not just wrong, but they are lying.

Not just anyone, companies in particular. If a company tells you it's building something to replace jobs, and then it doesn't do it, that company lied.