alt Hacker NewsThis blog post is based on a paper (https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.14740). The paper is based on a simulated wargame. The wargame is of the author's own design.
The wargame design does not differentiate between ordinary defeat and mutually assured destruction, so of course a player about to use would 'push the button.' That's also believed to be true in real life.
Results based on simulations can be very informative, but we must always be careful to check how well the simulation framework represents reality.
As Majromax stated, if the game is framed such that losing vs MAD have the same penalty, then it is not at all representative of reality. It is set up to be a "you miss 100% of the shots you don't take" game.
As an important aside, I hope that everyone is aware that as of 2025, the annual US military funding law (the NDAA) established a prohibition by Congress prohibiting AI from automating nuclear launch. This was already US policy and is common sense; now it's also part of federal law.
10 USC Ch. 24: NUCLEAR POSTURE https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?path=/prelim@title10/sub...
FY2025 NDAA, Section 1638 https://agora.eto.tech/instrument/1740