As it happens, the current number-two article on HN is about a similar consequence of Chinese export controls--a car manufacturer developing electric motors that do not use rare earths:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48510010

> Listen - that's the sound of millions of companies and users doubling down on Chinese models.

They’re falling back to Opus 4.8. Most people weren’t using Fable for everything anyway because it’s so expensive.

None of open weights models are even at Opus 4.8 levels. If someone was using Fable they don’t have any second best alternative outside of Anthropic.

Which models? Im curious what kind of more specific hypothesis you're willing to put forth. Anthropic going to lose 20-30-40-50% of users to Deepseek? What?

Aren't biggest Qwen 3.7 closed? I don't suspect China's policy here would be anything but ruthless.

As a non-US person, I will use whatever is the best and reasonably priced. I could not give one iota about who makes or hosts these models. The origin or political leanings of these models mean nothing in my usage calculus.

Wait until it is illegal to download or use Chinese models (only half-joking).

Chinese models are next, the whole reason this is happening is because they don't want China to steal their tech. It is no secret anymore that they have been distilling US models. That's why it is explicitly aimed at foreign nationals.

You are drinking the cool aid if you think the CCP is going to let the world get ahead of China using CCP models.

Not really, they are not even as good as opus 4.7

To do what? I mean they’re good models, but frankly, they fucking suck (relatively speaking). I’m not looking to going back to a week of back-and-forth with the LLM once I’ve gotten used to all this one shotting.

No one serious is using the open models. Using them is like traveling back 2-2.5 years in time and using ChatGPT.