And yet millions of people still play the lottery.
I don’t think it’s as simple as uncertainty. Nobody wants to change their lifestyle to avert climate change. People prefer carrots to sticks.
It's that the marginal benefit of individual action accrues mostly to other people, or (on a national scale) to other nations. The fraction of benefit that accrues locally isn't enough to justify the cost (unlike, say, the ban on CFCs, or control of local pollution.)
So absent something enforcing prohibition of defection from a collective action, the collective action doesn't happen.
You want to actually solve the problem? Find such an enforcement mechanism (CO2 tariffs, perhaps), reduce the cost of solution (sufficiently cheap non-fossil energy), or find another solution that doesn't require global cooperation (albedo modification, say).
A solution that just requires everyone to get along and cooperate to their marginal net detriment doesn't seem like it will work.
People prefer carrots to sticks.
I sometimes think those in the environmental movement have made a mistake with their messaging. It is too often "we need to suffer to save the planet". It could also be things like:
It is true that there are, at times, good reason to do things that are not at the extreme of conservationism and environmentalism. If the messaging was a little more carrot than stick we might see more progress.