Neovim suffers from the Javascript kids mode of development. Constant change, constant churn, the mirage of stability always behind the corner, you always require third-party packages for functionality that should be core, completely erasing the Lindy effect of vim proper.
It’s a bit sad Neovim has stolen the thunder from the original work of Moolenaar & co. My guess is that neovim will splinter itself down the line further again once lua stops being attractive, while vim & Emacs will keep chugging along for another half century.
That’s a serious misreading of the NeoVim ecosystem, and I’d bet good money against your predictions coming true.
When did you last look at the neovim ecosystem? Because what you describe is the opposite of what's happened recently. The core has been getting more stable over time, with fewer breakages, and more essential functionality has been added, such as LSP support, completion, and a package manager, with plans to add more.