I am working on exactly this issue right now. My approach is that a highly optimized harness (pi.dev) with the right backing knowledgebase (a custom, self-updating wiki with lots of QC layers) can get close to most of my usage patterns for my Claude Max 20x subscription. I use Gemma 4 26B QAT served by a custom fork of llama.cpp, with 4-8 slots of 256k context at Q8. It's a very good model when the harness keeps it on rails. In an age of 1M context windows, 256k may seem small but it's been plenty for my work (scientific programming). A $20/month subscription to Ollama-cloud gets me good coverage of consults out to frontier models for difficult plans or debugging (again this is all woven into my highly customized pi install).

I'm still optimizing it (with claude, to be clear), but my testing is very encouraging. I worry a lot about companies (and the government) controlling access to machine intelligence, so local is the way to go.