Does Europe need to train a frontier AI model, at all?
"Training a frontier AI model" is a euphemism. The AI industry is, at present, a disproportionately resource-intensive and exploitative activity which carries only an religious promise of making up for itself at some future date (note that the beliefs being touted to board members are different than the gospel spread to users).
More accessible "non-frontier" models are being designed, built, and trained, while bigger models' gains are beginning to asymptote. Economically, Europe does not often hastily participate in new ways of wealth extraction, and with regard to sovereignty, I'd argue that "frontier" models are becoming a liability to the governments who build them and to the populations they're meant to lead.
I'm with you. I think we will need less "frontier" models in the future, but we'll reach for more specialized ones. A small, focused model trained to e.g. coding is within the realm of useful reality. JetBrains is making some moves in the field, and laudably, some of their work is open-weight.
it is a bizarre nuclear arms race. what they do need are the raw reaources and the capabilities to sefend themselves ans the capability for offense atleast as a threat.
> Does Europe need to train a frontier AI model, at all?
Perhaps. While I'm more impressed by AI than I think you are, I do also say on occasion that recent developments in AI feels much like the 90s rapid development of computer graphics, in the sense we're overly impressed by what we see only to discard it quickly when the next improvement arrives: https://archive.org/details/nextgen-issue-26
If the US government declares no model ≥ Fable can be released, that could make it completely pointless for anyone in the USA to work towards superior models, which may cause rapid catching up, or may cause the investment bubble to pop and all the money to go away.
Or it may cause all the investment to go to not-USA. China's one possibility, EU is another. No idea which would be least-distasteful to the people currently eager to invest in AI.