It's not that absolute progress is slow, it's extremely slow compared to the predictions. It might be fast in absolute terms, but the "50% of coders will be obsolete by 2023" has been renewed every six months, and it's becoming increasingly clear that there's a real chance it might not ever happen.
„Coders being obsolete” is not a measure of AI capabilities. I see coders being more busy than ever before. I see people without coding knowledge getting more behind. The gap is widening, not shrinking.