> Oh! What’s his reputation?

The people who are completely sold on the belief that AI providers are running at a profit believe him to be utterly, totally and completely wrong in every one of his predictions.

The people who are completely sold on the belief that AI providers are running at a loss they can never recover from believe him to be utterly, totally and completely correct in every one of his predictions.

The reality is that it's not his predictions that matter, but his data, which is almost always correct as of time of writing. If you ignore his opinions, the data presented on liabilities, spend, revenue, loans, commitments, etc across Coreweave, Stargate, Oracle and all of the usual AI companies is, as far as I can tell, correct.

IOW, when it comes to his opinions, it's all about your priors. His data is good, though.

Up until this post, I thought he was someone with good financial insight, analytical chops, and business sense, stuck with an audience that thinks it's still 2023 and ChatGPT 3 is still the pinnacle of the technology, and that he therefore has to pander to in order to pay the bills.

After this supposedly being the reveal for his bubble-bursting massive revelation that will send the industry flying and lead to journalists kicking in his door for interview requests and exposés, I think... well, not that anymore. I thought "the frontier labs are losing money" was rather universally understood, and this really isn't even as bad as the stuff that's publicly visible; the fact that they keep raising hundreds of billions of dollars that they'll one day supposedly be required to show returns on?

Poor but that doesn't stop innocent from taking his thesis seriously and leaning on to the doom scenario. What do you think of his reputation?