I think we're well within a year from that. People are already letting their AI agents loose on the internet doing their bidding, barely keeping an eye on them. See https://lantian.pub/en/article/fun/ai-agent-bankrupted-their...

There are troves of leaked data out there. It's just a matter of (short) time until someone puts their AI brutes on it.

Turn it off at the wall, done. next doomsday scenario please

No, this is meaningless. Of course AIs, just like humans, will go rogue and probably already do. "Rogue" is a pattern that appears in human communication and behaviour and AIs can emulate it.

But that doesn't make any particular AI controlled process all-powerful. Self improvement doesn't do that either. There will be many self improving AI processes playing many different roles pursuing many different goals.

I think, the defining moment will be when one AI convinces another AI to convince third AI to do something.

This might seem like I'm writing a nonsense, but read it again.