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kjksftoday at 1:05 PM8 repliesview on HN

Cursor has $4 billion annual revenue rate so $60b is 15 years of future cashflows.

That's not crazy because if past predicts the future, that revenue will grow quickly. At $8 billion/year it's just 7.5 years, which is a reasonable investment.


Replies

acc_297today at 3:31 PM

This is a linear regression relying on a couple years of data to predict 15 years in the future and I don't believe that the valuation is made on this basis.

It may be that spaceX is buying an operation that would realistically take 5 months and 100 million to copy in-house for 60B because the worry is that waiting 5 months might cost that much in some sort of lost opportunity. It also might be that in any negotiation SpaceX is viewed as incredibly cash-rich and so anything can be sold to them for inflated prices.

I really don't understand these companies valuations it seems like boardrooms everywhere are in a constant state of panic that they'll lose it all if they aren't growing a breakneck pace constantly.

bean469today at 4:25 PM

> Cursor has $4 billion annual revenue rate so $60b is 15 years of future cashflows.

This assumes that Cursor's annual revenue will be the same or higher for over a decade. It's not really like they don't have competitors

potatototoo99today at 2:05 PM

Not annual, annualized. Let's see if people stick to it knowing it belongs to Musk now.

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winter_bluetoday at 4:58 PM

That revenue number is almost meaningless, since they give out tokens at a loss. Especially with Composer 2.5 tokens are sold at a steep loss. They could certainly grow to $8 billion/year, with this negative revenue / heavily subsidized subs, but what will happen if Cursor decide to be profitable, or maybe to even just break even?

funnym0nk3ytoday at 3:33 PM

If past predicts the future people will drop it once it is in Musks hands. And as a token reseller that revenue is not that impressive.

mdavid626today at 3:47 PM

Is that profits or revenue? :-)

1270018080today at 5:29 PM

Hasn't cursor's revenue declined? I think they already peaked.

turtlesdown11today at 4:50 PM

revenue ≠ future cashflows