alt Hacker NewsThe dual risks of either a) accidentally pushing a foreign competitor into the lead and losing dominant status, or b) pushing the underlying companies hard enough that they decide to relocate.
a) is specifically the risk that the export controls push companies in other countries to prefer non-US models due to the lowered risk of getting cut off from a model. The increase in revenue for non-US AI providers combined with the drop in revenue for US AI providers allows non-US providers to double down on training and reach parity or exceed US SOTA models.
b) is sort of self-explanatory. Same model as above, but when the US AI providers start seeing the revenue drop they decide to relocate internationally instead. The US would probably try to stop that, no idea how successful they would be.
> a) accidentally pushing a foreign competitor into the lead and losing dominant status
But then the foreign competitor would stop the proliferation of their model and we would just go back and forth - American companies could "release" their model and after time gain the advantage back using the same tactics that the foreign competitor used.
> b) pushing the underlying companies hard enough that they decide to relocate.
This sounds like a reasonable risk to identify, but I would just say that it's not super clear-cut where you would relocate to.