The estimated number of deaths from cervical cancer in the US in 2026 is 4,200. The death rate is 2.2 per 100,000 people down from 3.1 per 100,000 in 1992.

If we multiply 3.1e-5 by 50 years that's about a 0.15% chance of dying of this cancer. The HPV shots cost $500-1000 for the three shots, so the cost per life saved is about $650K. With the statistical value of a human life being about $12M this is quite cost effective.

I'm assuming the reduction in death continues to later in life after 30, but that's a reasonable assumption, IMO.

> From what risk level without them?

“Approximately 0.6 percent of women will be diagnosed with cervical cancer at some point during their lifetime, based on 2021–2023 data” [1].

Given “reports of serious health issues after HPV vaccination were consistently rare—around 1.8 per 100,000 HPV vaccine doses, or 0.0018%” [2], a woman suffers a 300x higher hazard (assuming we measure a serious vaccine reaction as being equivalent to cancer, which is silly) from going unvaccinated.

> How many people actually die of cervical cancer before age 30?

4,462 young women under the age of 30 died of cervical cancer in 2022 worldwide [3].

[1] https://seer.cancer.gov/statfacts/html/cervix.html

[2] https://www.cancer.gov/news-events/cancer-currents-blog/2021...

[3] https://gco.iarc.who.int/today/en/dataviz/pie?mode=populatio... Mortality, cervix uteri, females, 0 to 29

>From what risk level without them? How many people actually die of cervical cancer before age 30??

They will downplay that number or exaggerate it.

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Your questions are sort-of answered in the article. 3300 die each year of cervical cancer in the uk. So at 0% it saves 3300 lives per year. However the vaccination is fairly new so they have to wait longer to see if it applies 20-years, 30-years, etc later. I assume it would though.