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vascotoday at 5:49 AM4 repliesview on HN

It's obviously a lie to get us to accept no tests due to limited machines. The same as when COVID started masks "didn't help" because they didn't yet secure enough supply for everyone, then when they did, suddenly the masks helped.

Every system that exists as a black box is more understandable with more sensing, not less. Our bodies are not special.

It's also ridiculous that the proposition goes like:

1. Doctor knows some tests will flag tumors or variations that look weird and that we shouldn't then go investigate all of them

2. Doctor shuts off their brain and will then investigate all of them by doing invasive procedures

Just knowing how many such variations there are and if they grow or not is useful information. But the doctors pretend like they are super smart before the test and super dumb right after.


Replies

bigfudgetoday at 6:48 AM

This kind of thinking (that it’s an obvious lie, perpetrated by a cabal) is the sort of superstitious bullshit that is going to jet us all killed. Look up Bayes theorem. As yourself how good a test would have to be if the base rate is low. Wonder what the probability of harm might be if the next advised test was invasive and the patients was anxious because a lump had been detected.

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Paracompacttoday at 6:47 AM

It's not the same doctors saying they themselves are simultaneously smart and stupid. It's "smart" doctors saying that as a point of policy, it is not a good idea for biomedical companies to try to make a buck off of popularizing unnecessary diagnostics, because anxious patients will by chance or by intention find a "dumb" doctor who will agree to perform invasive procedures. (Have you ever heard a tech person say that the tech world has a lot of stupid ideas? It's the same thing.) Look up what happened with South Korea diagnosis vs. mortality rates when they instituted national thyroid screenings in the 90s.

> Every system that exists as a black box is more understandable with more sensing, not less.

With perfect humans in a perfect society, maybe. But such is ignoring the elephants in the room here, from the actual experts on the topic.

lazyasciiarttoday at 7:36 AM

So do you think the doctors should hide the data from you so you don’t know anything looks weird, or tell you it looks weird but they don’t think it’s worth investigating it? And do you think the average patient will say “ok that’s fine, I’m not getting a second opinion and if I die my family will sue you into the grave too”?

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