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jmalickiyesterday at 4:53 PM3 repliesview on HN

> How do they know [person] is an expert in [some field]? How do they find that person?

They have a PhD from a top school, they are a licensed attorney, they are a licensed physician, a board certified cardiologist, etc.

They are constantly recruiting from these populations with well-paying side gigs.

> 4) And judge the result

That's what they pay the experts for. And to have experts review the other experts with peer review.

> You can find a lot of people who disagree on many topics, and those turtles go all the way down.

Which is why everything has to be well-calibrated and not just a hot take - a well reasoned opinion any expert would find fair.

Noone is really caring about hallucinations on point facts these days though, it is much more about complex reasoning tasks. Can they move the bar on the complexity of software LLMs do on their own? Can they get to a point where LLMs can begin to replace physicians? Financial advisors? Actuaries? etc.


Replies

macleginnyesterday at 5:29 PM

> Noone is really caring about hallucinations on point facts these days though, it is much more about complex reasoning tasks.

The boundary is pretty thin there though. E.g., Gemini recently told me that a certain papers claims that two frameworks are mathematically equivalent, while the paper shows the opposite, and yesterday Google's AI overview told me that no World Cup matches were scheduled for that day despite their being several of them. The model probably used complex reasoning to arrive at both (incorrect) answers, but superficially they look like basic errors of fact.

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maxnevermindyesterday at 7:48 PM

That is informative, I was suspecting that is how models improve their performance on some convoluted "non-googlabe" benchmarks like SimpleBench, that is how, they just got the taste of those those questions from publicly available samples and then hired people to generate similar questions and provide answers for them.

I wonder if extracting those static reasoning chains make sense given a Rich Sutton's "The Bitter Lesson" and Geoffrey Hinton's "People should stop training radiologists now.". I guess until participants make money they won't stop, not sure if they do, so far it is more about expectation of profitability as I understand.

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giardiniyesterday at 6:01 PM

Ahhhh! the ever-present omniscient "they" of paranoia!

But be careful: they are watching you and they don't want you giving away their secrets!