alt Hacker NewsBad actors tend to keep their internal tooling extremely private/proprietary.
As few/none would create a model as capable as anthropic/openai can - this choice to limit access does mean that most bad actors will be working with less capable models of varying quality.
While some will be able to fork DeepSeek and get comparable performance, it still reduces the number of bad actors with access to tools that would effectively accelerate their efforts.
So I suspect if you could measure the alternate universe timelines where everyone gets access to non-aligned foundation models vs. heavily restricted access, you’d probably find that in the near/medium terms the universe with restricted access probably sees less negative impact overall.
Long term it’ll be a wash either way (eventually Opus-level models will run on 20 watts) and hopefully Anthropic is correct in their predictions that LLMs will grant a strong defenders advantage in the long run.
Much of this is probably true. However, Mythos is not a hacking focused model, and while Anthropic seems to train their models on CTFs etc... while others like Zhipu seem not to or not nearly as much, that does mean that it's entirely possible that an actor could post-train a strong model like GLM5.2 to be comparable to or maybe even stronger than Mythos in terms of hacking.