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jerftoday at 1:59 PM0 repliesview on HN

It's hard to bring much rigor to it. I'm not saying impossible, but it's not like it's completely obvious how to do it and people are just too lazy. Intrinsically, if I'm going to test a back-and-forth with a model I have a human in the loop making frequent decisions. Did the model fail or succeed at whatever rate it did that because of the model or the human? Did the testing protocols capture the actual problem, e.g., maybe if the model was given some particular bit of information that a normal human would have given it it would have done much better or worse, but the testing protocol in the interests of "rigor" excluded the human in the loop from doing it. Is the human going to be willing to sit down and do the same task 25 times, refreshing the model from scratch each time for a "valid" test? Can you get the same human to analyze every model in the test? Is their 10th pass of the problem an invalid test because you can't as easily erase the human's knowledge of the previous 9 tests? What do you do with a model that succeeds wildly 75% of the time and spins off into a loop the other 25%? Is that loop real or, again, did your "rigorous" testing protocol prevent the human from saving the model from the loop like any developer would?

And so on and so forth. Again, I'm not saying this is impossible but I am saying that if you tried to do it, and you got the money, and you built the test, and got the human subjects clearance, and you ignored that during the process of all that at least one more frontier model would come out, you can count on HN anklebiting your "rigorous" study even so, and probably being correct about a lot of the issues it could have because it would take several iterations of this to build a reasonable protocol... at which point it would quite possibly also be obsoleted by progress again.