alt Hacker NewsI feel like the gap is closing to be able to run good enough models locally even for coding and I would assume it could make some companies a bit nervous. Am I wrong about that?
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You don't even need to run them locally for them to be a threat. Plenty of companies are looking at paying third party companies to host these models and they come in at fractions of the price of the frontier labs.
I don't think so. I could easily see a company deciding to host and run these models for their own development. If you have a dev team of about 10 people, a one time $50k investment in an LLM server has to be pretty tempting. Unlimited tokens, decent performance, upgrade options, and potential product integrations.
For companies wanting LLMs in their products in general, I have to think going the local llm route is even more tempting. Somewhat dumb models are more than good enough for a lot of the things people are integrating LLMs into their products.
It's not economic to run them locally. It's amazing for privacy, and fun hobby. But you're either looking at super slow CPU builds with $10k in RAM, $90k worth of GPUs, or a really quantized model that doesn't compare in quality.
I might build one for fun, but it's not going to change the economics alone. Still exciting it's possible.
The hardware requirements to run this locally are still very high. Seems far enough off mainstream for those companies not to be too worried yet.
locally on what hardware? something like the new dgx spark, ryzen halo, or mac studio will cost you ~ $4k plus whatever you pay for power. at the rate AI is currently progressing, i think you'd be optimistic to consider that as having a 2 year depreciation.
for $4k, you can get 20 months of claude max 200. i'd take claude over the hardware.
anthropic will have something to worry about when you can run a local model on your macbook that can code. but i think we're quite a ways off from that.
Honestly, Qwen3.6 is already what you need for the large majority of tasks.
(I only ask Opus every 5 to 10 requests, when my local Qwen fails or when I encounter a situation that is too world-knowledge specific to be worth asking, but that way you can live easily with Claude's cheapest plan without ever facing usage limit).
If we didn't have a RAM/GPU shortage right now they would be more nervous than they are. But as it is very few people are going to be able to afford a rig that can run this model effectively. That's probably not going to change for several more years yet. I think if the Z.ai folks decide to come out with a flash version of GLM-5.2 specialized for coding that came in about about 80B params, then the US frontier labs would probably be more worried. Overall, the Chinese AI companies have been showing the way to do the same amount with less (sometimes much less) and as that trend continues it's going to make the frontier labs worried - but even the Chinese AI companies are going to want to protect their moat by not releasing capable models that are significantly smaller than their current flagship models. AliBaba Qwen seems to be there now - it's gotten mighty quiet from them lately - their latest 395B model is just too large for most folks to run at home and they don't seem to be making any noises about releasing smaller ones this time around.