alt Hacker NewsYou don't need Colossus-level compute or a genius-level IQ to evaluate the question "Will the steam machine cost more than $700 at release", or "Will 2026 be the hottest year on record".
Replies
weird-eye-issue • today at 8:10 AM
Sure but that level of confidence is what would also eventually wipe you out because gamblers are not necessarily known for proper risk management. You could win 10 bets in a row but then it would only take one bet that you had 100% conviction on for you to lose and you get wiped out
You are not evaluating those questions, you are evaluating the probability of that two things happening, and you need to evaluate it better than the other people to win.
There are no easy questions, the difficulty is set by the skill/investment level of your competition.