alt Hacker NewsFutures role is not "generate real time estimates of the probability" and never was. They have two roles: actual contracts to deliver later at set price and high risk trading (yes, some peoples use of it is gambling). Futures markets at do in fact have the actual market component. Prediction markets don't.
If you want meteorological prediction, you are way better off buying meteorological prediction from a company that sells meteorological predictions.
I said similar, not identical. The primary role of a futures market is for consumers and producers of commodities to hedge out their risk so that they don't go bankrupt if there's volatility in the market. Speculators (by which I do not mean gamblers) make money in futures markets by acting like insurance companies and absorbing that risk. Hedgers take "losing" trades that are equivalent to paying an insurance premium.
Prediction markets could be interesting to hedge a bunch of weird little things. Alas, not how things have gone so far really.