Elevated error rate across multiple models

   I don’t prompt Claude anymore. I have loops running that prompt Claude and figuring out what to do. My job is to write loops.
   — Boris Cherny, head of Claude Code

I suppose it's a good time to encourage people trying out pi[1] with any cheap model from the openrouter rankings page[1].

[1] https://pi.dev/ [2] https://openrouter.ai/rankings

Incredible how we can claim productivity increases when its either Claude or Github shitting the bed every other day. It must even itself out to a net neutral gain in the long term.

I have been developing software since the late 80s, mostly CAM software for metal cutting machines, and I have been refereeing tabletop roleplaying games like Dungeons & Dragons since the late 70s.

I get the power of LLMs, and I do find them useful. But I find them useful in much the same way I find a really good set of random tables useful, or a good set of rules for procedurally generating something like a star sector for a science fiction campaign.

For my day job developing software, and for the RPG campaigns and books I run and publish today, LLMs are, in many cases, random tables on steroids. After using them for two years, even with all their improvements, I am continually reminded by the results I get that, at the heart of it, I am still dealing with what amounts to randomly generated content.

Yes, I know it is more accurate to call the process probabilistic rather than random. And yes, somebody can construct a technically deterministic setup with fixed weights, fixed seeds, fixed sampling parameters, and a frozen runtime environment. But that is like saying you can recreate a rainstorm if you get a thousand butterflies to flap their wings in exactly the right way. It may be technically true, but it is not how the technology behaves in normal day-to-day use.

For practical purposes, given the same prompt and the same apparent starting conditions, the result can differ each time you use a model. The outputs will often be highly correlated, and often useful, but they are not deterministic software in the ordinary sense.

So far, I am failing to see how the inherent probabilistic nature of the technology can be fully overcome. I understand how we got to where we are today from older neural net technology, including the systems used for vision and sound. What we have now can be very useful. But my view is that it is being badly oversold and overhyped. Its probabilistic nature is being vastly underestimated, and that is a major reason for much of the weirdness and many of the failures we keep seeing.

In tabletop roleplaying, there have been times when hobbyists relied too much on procedurally generated content and ultimately got burned by it, either through campaigns that were not as fun or products that were subpar. Each time, the lesson was the same: there is no substitute for human judgment.

Any workflow or technology incorporating LLMs has to keep humans in the loop, and not merely as rubber stamps. The human has to remain the primary decision maker.

Imagine a future where Anthropic holds your company hostage because no one can code properly anymore by hand and demands paying 200% higher price for the usage.

What can your company do?

status.claude.com looks like a holiday christmas ornaments

Actual 90d uptime: 97.6838% (calculated by Codex from live data)

  Computed from the page’s own data for 2026-03-26 through 2026-06-23:

  - Partial outage: 43h 15m 1s
  - Major outage: 6h 46m 48s
  - Total affected time: 50h 1m 49s
  - Major-only uptime: 99.6861%

I had to log in to github and review a PR by hand just now. I felt like a savage again!

I signed up for paid plan on Claude just 3 hours ago for the first time and was scratching my head on how that thing gets praised so much if I can't even send a question half of the time....

So can we hire back those Oracle workers to write some code now?

The rainbow has to keep being a rainbow.

ClaudeCode still has a 99.27 % uptime

ClaudeCowork has 99.52 % uptime

ClaudeForGovernment has 99.93 % uptime

Wonder if in the future that public holidays will = AI services being turned off by gov. killswitch, to encourage people to actually take time off.

Since this keeps happening often enough not to bring up that much new discussion...

Today is the Latvian holiday of Jāņi, to mark the passage of the summer solstice: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J%C4%81%C5%86i

Grab yourselves some beer or beverage of choice and some cheese (we usually have caraway cheese), alongside skewered meat and get some rest!

I mean, what else am I going to do while Claude is down, write code manually, like they did in the 90s or something?

Has anyone noticed how changing the viewport changes the uptime percentage?

Getting consistent "API Error: 500 Internal server error" messages in Claude Code right now (10:20 AM EST)

It would be hilarious if they don't know how to fix it because this was built by "running loops calling Claude" and they haven't the faintest idea of the present underlying architecture.

:)

I have two sessions going. One is fine, one keeps timing out. Both Opus 4.8 in Claude code in terminal. Must have them routed to different to different infra that isn’t equally impacted.

What a coincidence, OpenAI is also down according to Downdetector.

Restarted my claude session, by killing my terminal, it worked

My claude status teams webhook says unicode character U+274C , usually on downtimes we get a U+1F7E1... let's see how this goes

Is it that time again?

I always associate downtime like this with a new model rollout. Maybe we are getting Fable back.

Good opportunity to do some planning work.

I was going to say the modern day equivalent of Github is down, but it's always down.

Th is really not good advertisement for Claude-Oriented Programming

Mine went down mid-session and it just shows a JSON error lol, waiting for it to come back up to continue..

Perhaps they are adding security controls to bring Fable back online? One can hope.

And we're back. Nothing to see here...

Good thing we have GLM-5.2

saw this comment on Reddit,

"it's look like when the lights turning off, we return to socialize lol"

Good break, time to catch up with the code

Appstoreconnect too

Who is GLM 5.2?

Smells like someone's gassing Mythos back up.

Protip: in the olden days we used to be able to read and write code ourselves. Worth trying while Claude is down! You might have fun and learn something!

Always good because people will look for and try alternatives.

Another day, another Claude outage.

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Goddamit, like losing the ability for coding without any Internet wasn't enough, now I have to forget how to code without Claude?

ps. if you say you still capable of developing software without the Internet, you're lying. Perhaps, to your own self.

Hey you. Touch grass. Go outside. If a minor downtime of a developer tool triggers you, it means you likely have heavy anxiety. Don’t worry about it and calm down.

Anthropic has massive capability issues due to massive user growth. It happens often when EU and US work hours collide. They have smart people working on it. Don’t waste your energy complaining.

Cheers

Oh no, I have to write that marketing coordination email myself again!

I hear that 100% of code at Anthropic is coded by Claude, so this was caused by Claude. And also, no one but Claude can fix Claude

I request an official statement from Anthropic explaining how they're going to limit outages in the future. Elevated errors almost always means its down for me and I can't be that unlucky statistically speaking. It seems that Anthropic does not have a good grip on the ops side of things.