The US govt is going to ban foreign models and foreign providers, and frontier labs are still cooked, because US companies will RLwash Chinese models to try and get in on the captive market. The frontier labs have already lost the war for coding, their next play is custom models for specific domains... Anthropic Galen for biomedical research, Anthropic Locke for legal analysis, etc, and you won't see _ANY_ intermediate work on the model, you will put in query, maybe get some questions fired back during work, and get a "final report."

Eventually the frontier labs will try to cut out the middle man once these models prove themselves and start doing partnerships with big firms in the domains, so they can take a % of the profits in perpetuity rather than just taking a one time payment. For example, after Anthropic Galen, they'll do a partnership with Pfizer to generate Ozempic-Superjacked and take 20% royalties on global sales.

So long as Chinese labs keep writing white papers, trade secrets aren't going to win the day.

Having growth up in the 90s, it is weird seeing companies share their technology secrets publicly.

I'm sure investors thought one or two of the ISPs laying all that fiber would be collecting fat rents on them until the sun burnt out. I'm glad they got so much in the ground before there was a reckoning. I hope this industry ships more very expensive models, ASAP.

We're seeing the first 20 years of the dot-com cycle, but compressed into two years, and trying hard not to fall into the tar pit of ad-supported services.

I'd guess Anthropic will probably win, and LLMs will probably still be with us and be much better in 10 years time.

But next year we could be in the middle of a massive $600B/yr capital-spending bubble deflating hard with unemployment accelerating towards 10% (or higher).

The internet never failed, but the telcom/dotcom collapse still happened in 2001.