>In the long run I truly believe local AI will win
What do you mean by 'win'?
For a normal coder/person's use cases, yes. But AI companies are becoming more specialised in different fields and these tailored models will be leagues ahead in those niches.
The way I see it - Opus 4.8 xhigh can do any programming task with a programmer instructing it. If Apple releases local model together with a device that can run said model it would render OpenAI/Anthropic useless for vast majority of usecases.
And if a local mcahine can run something like Opus 4.8, who is to say that those "specialized" models would just not come at a later date, or even loading open models wouldn't be an option with something like M7-verified flag from huggingface that would make it extremely easy for any consumer to just play around.