Nice write-up... but with strong opinions that seem plausible, yet are highly debatable.

"The rise of the long tail" -> To my knowledge the 'long tail' was years ago a subject of many scientific business studies. The conclusion: proof was never found for this economic theory. And yes, the book of Chris Anderson (20 years ago!) was an attractive read that also seems plausible.

"The barrier to entry for software has fallen." -> This is the marketing mantra since 4GL and IDEs. Visual coding IDEs, so coding without knowing coding never worked out as marketers promised, Same with nocode things years later.

Truth is programming in a natural language is very hard, that's why we have programming languages. And the hard part was never programming, but problems solving and gathering requirements before programming. Or during programming if you are fan of the agile community. AI/ML technology is a great tool for solving some problems, but certainly many problems can not be solved with AI for coming years. AI can not replace people, but people who do not add much value are, have been, and always will be the first to encounter technology progress.